Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Upcoming South African Election: Drama in the making...

Don't you just hate it when a photographer catches you in a very awkward moment?


Let's call this picture "the finger".



This one..."I'm ready to whoop some ass"



...this one is too easy. I'll let you provide the title

Jacob Zuma appears likely to be South Africa's next President, but this brotha comes with some drama.

THE BACKGROUND:

* South African President Thabo Mbeki's decision to sack Zuma in June 2005 after he was implicated in a high-profile graft trial in which his former financial adviser was convicted, provoked outrage among rank-and-file ANC members who alleged a political plot within the party to deny him a shot at the presidency.

-- Zuma won leadership of the ANC on Tuesday which almost certainly assures him of the South African presidency in the 20O9 general election because of the ANC's electoral dominance.

* THE 2005 CHARGES:

-- Zuma's former financial adviser Schabir Shaik was found guilty of trying to solicit a 500,000 rand ($72,500) a year bribe for Zuma from French arms company Thint in return for protecting it from an investigation into an arms deal arranged by South Africa in the late 1990s.

-- Another corruption count on which he was convicted said Shaik had paid Zuma 1.3 million rand ($187,100) in bribes to induce him to use his political influence to further Shaik's business interests. The fraud conviction related to accounting for these payments.

-- Prosecutors later filed charges against Zuma himself, accusing him of receiving bribes from Thint. The case was dropped but prosecutors have reopened their investigation of Zuma in that case.

* NEW ALLEGATIONS:

* Zuma's case was thrown out on a technicality but a high court ruling earlier this year cleared the way for evidence to be used against him in any future prosecution. In a separate case, Zuma was acquitted of rape charges in May 2006.

* Last week the Directorate of Special Operations filed an affidavit in the Constitutional Court containing what it called substantial new evidence that Zuma had received larger payments in a corruption case than originally thought.

* The affidavit said that payments based on the old and the new evidence are more than three times greater than those based on the old evidence alone.

* If Zuma is re-charged with graft, it raises the prospect South Africa's future president could be jailed long before he is sworn in. Zuma has said if he wins the ANC'S top job, he would step down only if a court proves he is guilty.

SOURCE: Reuters

FAST FORWARD TO PRESENT...

However, the reinstatement of the charges of corruption, fraud, racketeering and money-laundering against Jacob Zuma are certain to be an unwelcome distraction for the ANC president during the election campaign.

The ANC is facing a significant challenge from the newly-formed Congress of the People (Cope) which has emerged from bitter in-fighting within the ANC over the past three years.

The ruling party is going to have to work hard for every vote in this year's elections, in the knowledge that it could easily lose its two-thirds majority in parliament.

Not since it took power in 1994 has the ANC faced such a test from the ranks of the opposition.

Political analyst Steven Friedman says Jacob Zuma is the frontrunner to become the next president of the country.

"Some in the ANC leadership would prefer not to have to support Zuma. But as we draw closer to the elections, Zuma's position is strengthening all the time," he said.

"The ANC will try to make the corruption charges go away politically. One way is to appoint a national director of public prosecutions who won't prosecute Zuma.

"Another way is to… pass a parliamentary resolution indemnifying Zuma. If we get to a situation where Zuma is president and facing charges, there will be an attempt to make this go away politically."

A date for the elections has still to be announced, but the Johannesburg-based newspaper The Star says 15 April is one possibility.

What is not in doubt is that unofficial campaigning has already begun.

'Robust and interesting'

"We are now fully in election mode," says ANC spokesman Carl Niehaus.

"We respect the law and the decisions of our courts, but at the same time the ANC will vigorously exert its right to have Jacob Zuma as our candidate (for president).

"It is our right in terms of freedom of association and does not impact in any way on the legal processes," he added.

The ANC is certain to win at the polls, albeit with a reduced majority.

However, the corruption charges against Jacob Zuma have not yet gone away in the manner in which the ANC leader might have hoped. That makes an appeal to the Constitutional Court, and an application for a permanent stay of prosecution, increasingly likely.

Jacob Zuma was spot on when he told a gala dinner in East London last Friday: "This year's election campaign will be robust and interesting."

SOURCE: BBC

No comments: